Executives in Burbank could only dream for Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny to perform similarly to Top Gun: Maverick. A film that Steven Spielberg has said might’ve singlehandedly saved theatrical distribution. Top Gun: Maverick made $1.4 billion at the worldwide box office, the film also made $718 million domestically.
Top Gun: Maverick might’ve been lightning in the bottle.
A great film. A great star. The right story for the right time. A film that appeals to every generation.
Yet Top Gun: Maverick’s similarities to Indiana Jones remain.
Indiana Jones is an adored franchise. There hasn’t been an Indiana Jones film since 2008. Sure, there have been more Indiana Jones installments than Top Gun, which may play a factor in the anticipation to see this. Yet Harrison Ford is your legend, and this will likely be the last film with Ford as the iconic character. Now let’s throw in that James Mangold (Ford v. Ferrari, Logan) is a phenomenal director, and this new Indiana Jones film could very well be Disney’s Top Gun: Maverick-style victory. The elements are there but will the stars align for the perfect run?
Can Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny be a film that gains momentum through word of mouth and leads to constant box office success? It has all the right ingredients for that to happen. I also wouldn’t be surprised if this film attracts an older audience, and older moviegoers don’t always go on opening weekend. This could bode well for Indiana Jones 5 if it gets good word of mouth. If it doesn’t get good word of mouth then this strategy won’t takeoff. However, my current theory for Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny is that the opening weekend won’t be as high as major Marvel titles. But it will gain momentum throughout its run.
The last Indiana Jones film in 2008 made $790M worldwide. It was second overall at the worldwide box office in 2008. Most people are thinking that Indiana Jones 5 should hit a billion, as we get closer maybe those projections change. The franchise is beloved so the expectations are high. I wouldn’t be writing this article if I didn’t think there was some serious potential to be a success. Although what could stop Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny from replicating a Top Gun: Maverick-like success?
Well, ironically it may be Tom Cruise.
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny opens on June 30 in theaters. In its opening weekend, Indy’s box office challenges are a DreamWorks Animation film Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken, and Harold and the Purple Crayon. Safe to say, that Indiana Jones should win in those box-office matchups. However, there may be some films that have holds from earlier in the month. Films like Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Transformers: Rise of the Beasts, The Flash, and Elemental could potentially cut into Indy’s opening weekend haul. Although, that is relative speculation. It truly depends on if those films gain good word of mouth, and how they are received on their opening weekends.
Indiana Jones 5 after its opening weekend should win the box office again in its second weekend as it faces virtually no new competition (A comedy called Joy Ride and a Blumhouse horror film Insidious). This is where the Tom Cruise point I made earlier finally comes in. The Dial of Destiny in its third weekendwill have to take on Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part One in its opening weekend. I’m expecting Dead Reckoning to be massive in large part due to the Mission Impossible franchise but also due to the Top Gun: Maverick afterglow, so unless Indiana Jones 5 really shows out I think its run at the domestic box office will slow down significantly here. Not to mention after the premiere of Dead Reckoning, the following weekend will feature the premieres of Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer and Barbie. The summer box office will be loaded and competitive.
Disney has to hope Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny is a box office success. It may not reach the levels of Top Gun: Maverick but who knows maybe it will. Crazier things have happened and the similarities are definitely there.
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny is expected to debut at Cannes Film Festival. The film will open wide on June 30.
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Zach Perilstein is the Editor-in-Chief of the Boardwalk Times
