Disney’s 2023 theatrical slate was expected to be a slate that would usher the Mouse House back to the top.
Yet the once dream-like slate turned into a box office nightmare.
Let’s break down Disney’s 2023 box office, but this time we will be including our own box office predictions from earlier this year.
Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania
Domestic: $214 million — International: $261 million
Original box office prediction: Didn’t do one :/
This was an unexpected underperformance from Marvel Studios.
Quantumania was kicking off Phase 5 with a bang! Introducing Kang the Conqueror as the next Marvel big bad. The film was also a continuation of the Ant-Man franchise which was growing in popularity with each outing.
But after a high opening weekend of $106 million, this one just didn’t have staying power. The film would see a second-weekend drop of 69% down to $31 million.
Quantumania was just okay with both general fans and hardcore MCU fans and “just okay” in this era of moviegoing is no longer good enough. The film wasn’t the epic MCU outing that fans are accustomed to, although it had all the makings to be a hit.
Worldwide: $476 million
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Domestic: $358 million — International: $386 million
Original box office prediction: $700 million to $900 million
Marvel Studios’ biggest film of the year, and Disney’s biggest box office draw of the year as well. Yet it isn’t lost on anyone that James Gunn, the director of Vol.3, now works for the competition — Warner Bros. Discovery’s DC Studios. Yet Gunn delivered a must-see, emotional send-off for the Guardians, which has become a big franchise for both Disney and Marvel.
Everything about Guardians of the Galaxy Vol.3 was stronger than Quantumania. And that made a huge difference at the box office, Vol.3 opened with $118 million, and then it only had smaller drops in its following weekends.
Although Vol.3 did suffer from a lagging box office and some fans who were burnt out on superhero films. This film should’ve easily reached $900 million to $1 billion worldwide. Instead, it only eeked out with a total that was less than the second Guardians ($863 million).
Still, it was a win for Disney.
Worldwide: $845 million
The Little Mermaid
Domestic: $298 million — International: $271 million
Original box office prediction: $900 million to $1 billion
Disney marketed The Little Mermaid like crazy. There were billboards and brand partnerships. It was a lot. Yet it didn’t perform like a typical live-action remake. Did The Little Mermaid just get the unfortunate honor of being the live-action remake everyone decided to skip in theaters?
The Little Mermaid is a classic Disney tale and if it was 2019 this film would hit $1 billion. Yet the reality of the situation is we are in 2023 and the box office isn’t the same and the Disney live-action formula may no longer be as alluring as it once was. Especially now that Disney+ exists and you could wait 3–6 months to see it on there.
The film had an incredible opening weekend of $95 million. A ton of Disney films would’ve killed for a $95 million domestic opening this year. It also had some steady holds at the domestic box office. But still, it didn’t reach the heights that everyone expected.
Worldwide: $569 million
Elemental
Domestic: $154 million — International: $341 million
Original box office prediction: $300 million to $400 million
This was another win for Disney & Pixar but not a resounding one. Elemental started slow and grew through word of mouth. It just kept chugging along, despite its domestic opening being $29 million (once again you have to wonder if it was the lack of notable marketing or the Disney+ factor). The film had nice drops for consecutive weekends. Yet the international audience powered Elemental to success with a $341 million haul. It made $54 million just in South Korea.
Pixar however looks to continue to monetize Elemental. The film did well on Disney+. Also seems like there will be a bigger presence for Elemental in consumer products and at the parks.
Elemental was also the rare case where it outperformed my prediction.
Worldwide: $496 million
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Domestic: $174 million — International: $209 million
Original box office prediction: $800 million to $1 billion
It was a flat-out miscalculation.
What was supposed to be a big Disney Summer Blockbuster flat-out bombed at the box office. Dial of Destiny had a $60 million opening weekend. The previous Indiana Jones film Kingdom of the Crystal Skull had an opening of $100 million back in 2008. The box office has changed but you would think that a new installment after 15 years would do better at the box office, especially with all the anticipation. Instead, it made $40 million less on its opening weekend. Just an insane feat to pull off.
There wasn’t a hunger to see a new Indiana Jones movie. Which is crazy considering at one point I thought this could be Disney’s Top Gun: Maverick. I was expecting $1 billion guaranteed. It was Harrison Ford’s farewell? How could it not do well? Well, the film just clearly didn’t click. For what it’s worth, Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade is the last Indiana Jones film. Everything that has come after has felt like an extended epilogue.
After Dial of Destiny, the Indiana Jones franchise is in limbo. Disney & Lucasfilm will take some time before they decide what to do next, and how they can continue the franchise without Harrison Ford or Steven Spielberg involved.
Worldwide: $383 million
Haunted Mansion
Domestic: $67 million — International: $49 million
Original box office prediction: $250 million to $450 million
Another Disney Parks film adaptation, and it did not even come close to my initial prediction. This film had an odd release date. Dropping a Halloween film in July was a bit bold. Not to mention this film had dueling WGA/SAG-AFTRA strikes occurring during its marketing push. I think if they had delayed this one to early October it would’ve done bigger business.
Disney still has more Disney Parks film adaptations in the works but it’s not an encouraging sign when one of Disney Parks’ most popular attractions bombs at the box office. This film also carried a budget of $150 million, and it only made $117 million. So this wasn’t exactly a franchise starter by any means.
Worldwide: $117 million
The Marvels
Domestic: $84 million — International: $121 million
Original box office prediction: $650 million to $750 million
The Marvels is the type of film that should’ve made $205 million worldwide during its opening weekend. So what went wrong? And how did a sequel to a billion-dollar film just not reach an audience?
Was it the strike? Was it the marketing? Was it the fact they called it The Marvels instead of Captain Marvel 2? Were fans holding past blunders like Quantumania and Secret Invasion against them?
For what it’s worth the original Captain Marvel had the luxury of being stuffed in between Infinity War and Endgame. Marvel Studios also did an incredible job selling it with an Infinity War post-credit scene that made Captain Marvel a must-see film before Endgame. The Marvels didn’t have that luxury at all. Even though The Marvels was a fun film it didn’t have strong enough word of mouth to get more people to show up to see it.
Worldwide: $205 million
Wish
Domestic: $62 million — International: $147 million
Original box office prediction: $450 million to $550 million
The total may change by the time this article is released.
Despite being billed as the Disney100 anniversary film, Wish fell flat at both the domestic and international box office. Wish fell victim to Disney’s 2023 marketing woes. I swear I’ve read like ten different synopsis for Wish and they are all different. One of the synopsis even included the line, “Asha, a sharp-witted idealist, makes a wish so powerful it is answered by a cosmic force.” Do kids dream of being a “sharp-witted idealist” these days? And for what it’s worth this is coming from a person, who enjoyed the film and was pretty emotional over the whole Grandpa plotline. Yet it’s hard to ignore that Disney may have fumbled aspects of this story and marketing.
Once Upon a Studio was originally slated to be a part of Wish showings. Then that was released on ABC. Maybe it was a move so it wouldn’t outshine Wish?
Wish came nowhere near my original prediction. Now we have to wait to see if it finds a second life on streaming.
Worldwide: $209 million
Projected total haul (low-end): $4.85 billion
Projected total haul (high-end): $5.95 billion
Actual total haul: $4.83 billion (includes some titles we didn’t break down)
Disney had some top films at the box office this year. It’s just the fact that most of these films underperformed Disney’s lofty standards. Disney got to a point where almost every film was making nearly $1 billion. In 2019 — besides a select few films — every Disney film was an event from Star Wars to Marvel to Pixar to Disney live-action.
Now Disney has to adjust to a new normal at the box office. 2024 and 2025 will be huge tests to see if Disney can make magic at the box office again. I’m sure Disney would like to forget some aspects of this year at the box office. Sort of felt like a year where every film that had the potential to be a huge success just floundered.
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Zach Perilstein is the Editor-in-Chief of the Boardwalk Times
